Schubert talks Syria on FM4
On his latest interview for Austrian national radio FM4, Dr. Samuel R. Schubert reflected on the recent game-changing events in the Syrian conflict.
According to Schubert, Russian aerial bombardments imply a "greater probability of accidents" with the Western alliance, but they would not induce the United States to alter its overall strategy, i.e. continue to strike ISIS and support moderate anti-Assad rebels.
Russia's strategy, on the other hand, is expected - in Dr. Schubert's view - to be a continuation of the Syrian government's attempt to defeat all other rebel groups before turning against ISIS. Such a strategy would assure Assad, if successful, to stay in power once being faced with ISIS as the only enemy on Syrian territory.
Russia's short-term goal seems to create safe areas in order to assure the connection between North-Western and Southern Syria. Russia's dynamic of intervening might get more assertive once Russian casualties occur: a scenario which is all but unlikely given Russia's safe-bases approach.
Listen to the whole interview here ("Syria's Expanding Battlefield")